The Confidence Map

Book excerpt: A groundbreaking framework for making better decisions by understanding – and mastering – confidence. What does our desire for certainty and control have to do with our decision-making? According to behavioral economics pioneer Peter Atwater, the answer is simple: everything. In The Confidence Map, Atwater explores the hidden role of confidence in the choices we make, and why events described as being unprecedented are often entirely predictable—if we know what to look for. Using compelling stories from the past and present, Atwater shows readers how to apply the same tools he teaches the world’s leading institutional investors, corporations, and policymakers to help them make sense of complex situations and optimize strategy. You will learn: • How psychological distance consistently affects the choices we make • Why "Me-Here-Now" decision-making is such a powerful force • What happens at confidence peaks that leads to our downfall • The five ways we respond to extreme vulnerability • When consumers' feelings of certainty and control - not price - drive demand The Confidence Map is a book about why we do what we do, where we can and cannot trust our natural instincts, and how we can make sense of a world that too often feels senseless. Whether you’re investing in technology stocks, designing menu items for a fast-food franchise, or running an emergency room, Atwater offers an all-weather guide to avoid psychological traps, spot opportunities, and navigate the road ahead with clarity and purpose.