Arms Race: China and the Geopolitics of the South China Sea

Book excerpt: As friction in the South China Sea threatens to spark war, this primer brings a timely analysis of the changing power balance. As China rises, it is not in its interests to trigger a war. However, with that rise comes expanding interests; strategic, military, economic, and political, which it must protect. China is acquiring the means to defend those interests. Already China possesses the ability to bring regional nations into its orbit through economic self-interest. It will not be long before its military resources match its economic heft. Regional governments recognize the futility of opposing China and understand the benefits of cooperation. The contest for control of the South China Sea is over and China has won. China, assisted by the fecklessness of successive US presidents, has demonstrated the hollowness of American security guarantees in the region. During the coming decades Beijing will continue to pursue policies that persuade neighbors, and the United States, to face reality and accept Chinese hegemony in Asia. Increasingly China will set the terms in which others operate in Asia. The United States will not yield its primacy in Asia willingly. China’s wish to create strategic space acerbates long-dormant tensions. Survival is the primary goal of any state in an anarchic international system. War would sound the death knell for Asia’s rise and inflict serious damage on human progress more generally. So high are the stakes that policy makers are seeking solutions. Without compromise, leaders will use coercion as an instrument of policy. An agreed way forward is in everyone’s interest.