Get in the Game

Book excerpt: "An accessible, illustrated introduction to statistics and sports analytics for fanatics and newcomers alike. On February 27, 2013, NBA shooter Steph Curry wowed crowds when he sunk eleven out of thirteen three-pointers-only seven other players, including the likes of Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant, had scored more in the history of games at Madison Square Garden. Four years later, the University of Connecticut women's basketball team won their 100th straight game, defeating South Carolina 66-55. And in 2010, one sports forecaster-an octopus named Paul-correctly predicted the outcome of all of Germany's matches in the World Cup. These are surprising events. Are they truly improbable? Mathematician and sports analytics expert Tim Chartier shows readers how to answer that question-condensing complex data modeling down to coin tosses and dice throws to give readers an introduction to statistics and a new way to enjoy sporting events. Chartier leads readers through modeling experiments with accessible tools and few formulas to develop an intuitive sense of the improbable. For example, to see how likely you are to beat Curry's three-pointer feat, take into account Curry's 45.3 percent three-point shooting average in 2012-2013. Take a coin and assume heads is making the shot (slightly better than Curry at a 50 percent chance). Can you imagine getting heads eleven out of thirteen times? We soon get a sense of the improbability of Curry's feat. The book includes exercises for sports experimentation and engaging illustrations in comic book-style by illustrator Ansley Earle. The result allows all readers to predict and examine the likelihood of sports events for those who have never encountered formal statistics, who don't have the programming skills to run simulations, and may have never heard of sports analytics, but enjoy watching sports"--